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Dmitry Badovsky: "The opposition has arisen syndrome inflated expectations"

October 21 2009

The results of the October 11 elections to the regional and municipal authorities are not satisfied with a number of opposition parties, whose representatives are once again talking about the "stolen vote". Even went so far that the faction of A Just Russia, the CPRF and the LDPR in the Duma had left the plenary hall to protest against the unjust, in their opinion, the counting of votes.

Results of the fall election campaign and the ensuing political struggle surrounding it were discussed today at a roundtable in the Alexander House, "political analysts, human rights activists, representatives of the CEC and journalists. Their estimates about the problems discussed today with shared the Deputy Director General of Institute of Social Systems of Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov Moscow State University, Director of Development and Project Planning Dmitry Badovsky.

On the sociological forecasts and turnout

All opinion polls before elections on Oct. 11 showed the whole big picture, which consisted in the fact that United Russia retains a dominant position, the Communist Party - the second batch of stable political system. The positions of the LDPR and A Just Russia is extremely uneven in different regions. With respect to "Apple" made sense to discuss only Moscow. But what will be the end result - very much depend on the turnout.

Turnout at this point was generally the key issue of uncertainty of the election results and a key factor in forecasting accuracy, which issue the sociologists. Because, for example, when asked before the election in MHD, just announced their participation of 16% of voters, 20% said - maybe go, and maybe not. Another part of at the moment undecided.

Must take into account peculiarities of different social groups. Government employees, pensioners and civil servants go to the polls. For pensioners it is a tradition, they perceive it, including, as a duty. Government employees are also quite paternalistic configured. Officials go on duty. At the same time the middle class does not walk or walk and sporadically active. This affects the result.

Elections with low turnout advantageous to determine two parties - United Russia and KPRF. These are two parties that hold the election of the company, rather than attempting to mobilize specific voters, and it is logical in terms of their electoral interest.

As for the other parties, they are just interested in very high mobilization of the electorate in a high turnout. If they do it, then they can claim good results. If not, they fall into the danger zone pass or fail the barrier.

The access to the media

- Standards are beginning to work. Another thing that is important for the party to access not only to the federal but also to regional media. When it comes to regional elections and the opposition puts the problem - it's a reasonable comment from their side. Ie, these principles have begun to work, it is visible and the federal media and on television, but will say it again - should be the same in respect of regional media.

On the removal of opposition candidates

- With regard to the regime of scheduled party companies - there is no question at all. No withdrawals, we do not see, virtually all parties have the opportunity to participate.

I would say something has to continue to do with the collection of signatures of registered parties. Not the fact that they have to collect them.Because they are already registered and the registration requirements of the Party are quite serious, a bracket is high enough. And get them in every election to collect signatures might be too already. Or if need very seriously liberalize the registration of parties, and then let them at each election confirm their consistency with the signatures. One of two things.

In principle, the recurrence of the struggle for the withdrawal of candidates were between the parties. In Moscow, we saw the same thing "Apple" was trying to remove Galina Khovanskaya (former member of Yabloko, the candidate of MHD from the "Just Russia"). Then the Supreme Court restores it. It is also very important that the Supreme Court restores, ie given the signals already by the judicial system, it is not necessary to do this. That party members should also temper the fighting around the withdrawal from the race competitors.

As for companies in the districts, there were more withdrawals. But there again the main issues in the procedure of collecting signatures. In some cases, must, of course, understand, and were necessarily taken to court. Because it will say it again, court procedures are extremely important, because if it does not happen, we just stay in the space of political declarations. You have to try to reduce it to court, because otherwise it all would not go. We'll keep out of choice in the election to go and just talk. Some will say that everything is bad, others that all's well - it will be exchanged political declarations, and nothing more.

On the syndrome of high expectations

- In this election, the opposition has emerged syndrome inflated expectations. Right now, the crisis, it will automatically be reinforced their position, and it does not need to exert much effort. It felt. For example, in the Moscow election was all in the hands of the Just Russia, Yabloko and the LDPR. But to say that they are in active mobilization of the company - this could be seen, not felt. We know how know how to conduct elections Zhirinovsky, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, as he is able to mobilize the last day, but it was nothing like that. "Apple" locked in some of their relations with the "Just Russia" in the fight against Nemtsov. Communist Party depends heavily on strong single-mandate, but to collect at least a few strong candidates such as, for example, Nikolai Gubenko, they could not. Although the Communist Party in general acted rather successfully.

About démarche parties in the Duma

- In my opinion, is more logical to collect evidence of fraud, ie, entire legal framework, and only after that to appeal to the president as the guarantor of the Constitution and the electoral rights of citizens. Otherwise, it becomes a farce. Now they have just not backed up by documents of a political declaration. And as president should it respond? He can only offer them to act in accordance with the law.

I must say that this is not the first time happening. We have and since the last election the Liberal Democratic Party and stated something like that, too, left the room. Communist Party after each election, by the way, collecting a legal framework, appealed to the court, etc., ie was more consistent. And this time just to get that emotional appeal Vladimir Volfovicha provoked all the others and in the end we got here is a political declaration. Once again I say that if the opposition wanted to seriously raise the issue of unfair elections, he had them all together to work on raising the legal framework and evidence of fraud, and then with this stuff, these arguments appeal to the head of state.

Arina Semenova

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