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Elections in the regions: "Socialist" Lost Communists

March 12 2007

Last Sunday in 14 Russian regions held elections to local legislative bodies. Of course, on the basis of available data early to draw definitive conclusions, but some preliminary results can take.

Election on March 11 rightly consider a rehearsal for December's Duma elections. From what the results will show the political parties in regional elections, it becomes clear how justified their claim to seats in parliament.

It is certainly possible to say that nothing has happened inadvertently or even more sensational. Favorite as being one such, and left. "United Russia" confidently won first place in almost all regions where voting took place. We recall that the Republic of Dagestan, Komi Republic, Stavropol, Vologda, Leningrad, Moscow, Murmansk, Omsk, Orel, Pskov, Samara, Tomsk and Tyumen regions, as well as St. Petersburg.

As a result, only in the Stavropol Territory "United Russia" with the 1 st place pressed the "Fair Russia". But for the party which claims to be the main competitor of United Russia, a similar result can hardly be called a success. For the reason that in all other regions of the "Revolutionaries" were unable to "United Russia" decent resistance.

Even more than that. Almost half of the regions where elections were held, the party's Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov ceded to the Communists. "Actual Left", sets out to finally oust the Communist Party from the political field, even if achieved in this field some results, then very, very modest. Especially when you consider that the "Socialist" no shortage of funds ...

In most regions of the Fair Russia and the Communist Party took up approximately equal number of votes. And in the Omsk and Orel regions "Socialist" gave the Communists a really crushing score (on a Monday morning in the first case of "spravedlivorossov" voted about 7 percent of voters, 24 percent for the Communists, the second - 12 and 23, respectively).

One way or another, but based on the results of voting on March 11, we can conclude that all three of the above parties have a good chance to get into the Duma. We can already say that no problems will be a "United Russia". The CPRF and "Fair Russia" is not so sure. It is obvious that in the coming months between the two parties will develop a fierce struggle for votes. And the chances of the Communists in this fight, judging by the results of voting on March 11, seem preferable to the chances of "Fair Russia".

In the traditionally difficult situation are the Yabloko and Union of Right Forces. The party of Grigory Yavlinsky, it seems, generally do not have any prospects. In those regions where the "Apple" took part in the elections, the party failed to muster more than 2-3 percent of the vote. It is not even a catastrophe ...

Union of Right Forces kept fresher, although at least half the regions where the ATP took part in elections, the right could not overcome the 7 percent threshold. And where was so barely ... It is no exaggeration to say that rights should take maximum advantage for themselves today. In that campaign they were quite aggressive. It is worth noting that the PCA with might and main to use the slogan, characteristic for a left-wing parties, such as raising pensions and salaries. However, the great success using this know-how, the right to no avail. So their chances of getting into the State Duma is still very small.

Proposed the following calculation on the basis of the results of voting last Sunday. If this were the election of the Duma, it can be assumed that United Russia would have gained approximately 45-50 percent of the vote. That is, in Parliament "United Russia" would receive an absolute majority of votes.Fair Russia and the Communist Party gaining about 15 percent each. There is another party that may well rely on the seats in the Duma - Liberal Democratic Party (just over 9 percent of the vote). Union of Right Forces in parliament did not fall - 4.6 per cent of the vote, with 7-percent barrier reserves the right not the slightest chance. But even if we summarize the vote "SR", the Communists, LDPR, and ATP, then in this case, all together, they get fewer votes than the "United Russia".

Thus, the elections on March 11 highlighted the fact that the "United Russia" remain the leading political force country. The competition they can not make no "Fair Russia", nor the Communist Party. Other political parties can not even take into account. They have one task - to collect at least a minimum of votes to secure at least a certain number of seats at the State Duma.

Oleg Artyukov

Oleg Artyukov

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