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The Orange Revolution in Russia is planned for late 2006

June 8 2006

On the prospects of "color" revolutions in Russia talked a lot and for a long time. And when, apparently, the very possibility of revolutionary changes unconstitutional methods has become just another horror story, about the real chances "color" revolution once again talking sociologists. Analysts at the Institute of effective management "system" believe that this will happen in late summer and early autumn of 2006.

In a special research note prepared by the experts "the system", indicates that, as we approach 2008, Russia will increase the objective and subjective conditions for political upheaval in the format of "color revolution". "The aggravation of the political situation related to the upcoming time" h "will not only provoke a split within the top political class of the country, but also to push the Kremlin elite group of not quite deliberate and risky actions," - said in a research note, said "the National News Agency " .

These ill-conceived and risky action the experts "system" refers to at least two recent demarche of representatives of the federal center. The first - cancel deferments from military service for students. Second - the fight against corruption. Its main outcome will be an early easing of the bureaucratic class of the country on the eve of parliamentary and presidential elections. "Namely, the bureaucracy is largely dependent outcome of these elections," - experts say. As a result, the crisis of legitimacy of the vertical of executive power will almost certainly take advantage of the political opponents of the Kremlin.

Institute experts predict a high probability of intercept slogan of combating corruption by opposition to the Kremlin structures. "There are grounds to say that in the near future in Russia's regions will begin to create regional movements and unions to combat corruption, which lead the activists of opposition parties. Given the high social pathos of" fighting corruption ", which is supported by federal mass media and, in First of all, Central TV, you can expect a rapid recruiting unions and movements of the fight against corruption at the expense of the protest electorate and the electorate of the traditional political parties, including United Russia. "These unions and movements, with the revelatory event of power structures in the regions of Russia, then use the results of their activities for the organization of the bureaucratic regime of Putin critics in general. Thus, the parliamentary and presidential elections the opposition to the Kremlin will force a long-awaited unifying ideology, capable of ensuring the creation of a broad popular front to fight the ruling bureaucracy ", - underline analysts' systems."

In a research note "the system" is one possible scenario of "color" anti-corruption revolution in Russia.

1. In the regions of Russia, in major cities across the country are unions and the movement against corruption. The activists of these unions formed a positive relationship with the security forces in the region, acting as "advertising agencies" FSB, prosecutors and police. Received information from the security forces leaders of anti-corruption alliances are used to discredit the regional bureaucracies.

2. Activity antkorruptsionnyh unions are attracted to their ranks of all the new members, including from the ranks of the traditional political parties. Actively and aggressively "antikorruptsionerov, is evident from the boredom of conventional political parties, and destroy the social base of the traditional parties in the Russian regions, including United Russia.

3.In the "sign of solidarity with the policy of the Kremlin, activists of anti-corruption alliances begin to advance a coherent and coordinated the" march on Moscow "to" protect the president of Russia from his corrupt others. "In the suburbs, or in Moscow itself, creates a temporary camp of supporters to combat corruption, which constantly replenished coming from other regions of Russia people. It creates a kind of anti-corruption "Maidan".

4. For 2-3 weeks in production of "Independence" is formed by an active crowd of many thousands, submitting to leading her leaders. For some time the crowd to "Independence" is processed by a special information, which is designed to show the wholesale corruption of not only regional and federal officials, but also the president of Russia. Leaders of the anti-corruption "Maidan", at the appropriate time, calling on their supporters to end corruption in Russia once and for all "and calls to resign the government, parliament and the president of Russia. After the failure of the natural, the participants 'Maidan' storming start to the Kremlin, the White House and the State Duma.

Variant: the president is not attacked, on the contrary, to pay him his demands "antikorruptsionery. However, when the president does not want to go to a meeting "Maidan", or declare it an accomplice of corrupt officials, or their hostage. After the "color revolution" begins with the slogan "liberation of the national president of the chains of a corrupt bureaucracy."

5. The continued presence of hundreds of thousands of people from other cities in Moscow will be accompanied by the presence of foreign journalists, human rights defenders from Western human rights organizations. The use of force by the Kremlin would be difficult not only by this factor, but not readily bureaucracy (including the military) to risk for the president, who authorized the recent "cannibalization" of bureaucracy.

6. There is an opportunity to turn the anti-corruption "Maidan" in the headquarters of the popular uprising against the corrupt bureaucracy. Support for the uprising in Moscow provides local activists of regional alliances and movements fighting against corruption.

7. "Color Revolution" under the guise of anti-corruption uprising. Change of political regime in Russia.

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