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Endangered profession, or What I do not want to be when I grow up

October 16 2007

Profession - this is important. Her pick, ready for it, love it or dislike. In recent years, have become popular all sorts of ratings. Like, what kind of work will be in twenty years people most in need, what will not, what is the most popular, what no one wants to acquire. One of these rankings recently published in the journal Forbes. It identifies the most unpromising profession.

So, the list of endangered trades were made employees of print media, radio and tourism. The reason there is a network of Internet, which is increasingly growing. Reading the news portals are now quite a substitute for usual buying the morning newspaper printed in a stall, and cyber-tour - travel agent calls. Worrying also is the programmer, the reason lies in the "cheap" foreign experts. "The emphasis on kiberbezopastnost" - advice from the magazine Forbes. Unsweetened have and industrialists - the tendency to transfer production abroad, significantly reduces the number of jobs.

Its ranking American magazine is based on data from the U.S. as the Labor Department. In Russia, the situation is somewhat different. "We have a different specificity of the labor market. In our country a very different level of technological penetration, so that in the U.S., many occupations will die out much faster than in Russia - said in an interview with the newspaper "Sight" director of personnel management Pricewaterhouse Coopers Karina Hudenko.

And indeed, Russia is far from the level of infrastructure development and where such processes are slower. Of course, you can try on Forbes rating on Russia "in half a century, but it will be nothing more than guesswork. "I do not presume to predict what will happen in our country further. Much will depend on state policies and the effectiveness of market relations ", - explained Tatiana Razumov, Associate Professor of Labor and Employment Department of Economics of Moscow State University.

In addition to all there is still important aspect of mentality. Judging from recent opinion poll, most respected in Russia are doctors and teachers, representatives of the lowest paid professions. Journalists, accountants and trade workers as Russians by contrast, dislike.

Well, about a year ago, I remember, the same magazine Forbes, published ranking of the most promising jobs of the future. Here was preferred gene engineers, masters of robots and other advanced workers. Also, the following projected to 2026 the familiar profession as a seller in the U.S. will sink into oblivion - manual labor will be replaced by machines. There willy-nilly to mind an analogy with the story, "Player Piano" Kurt Vonnegut. Too, by the way, American.

The Russian Ministry of Labor such forward-looking projections have not yet published. It is understandable - in the country have enough problems, and predict the future is premature.

But if the link ratings with the definition of a future profession ... you are now using them? I - no.

Sasha Mertsalova


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