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Can you trust a computer forecasts?

August 4 2009

12358.jpeg On the Net found a huge number of popular "predictive" of sites where you can read your horoscope for the future, calculate yourself a suitable partner, and even find out the date of his death. Should I treat this seriously?

In recent years, the compilers of various forecasts, even professional astrologers are increasingly forced to resort to using computer technology. Still - after all they have to work with a lot of information!

Computer is able to analyze the data embedded in it and give the most probable scenario of the situation. For example, social scientists predict the outcome of upcoming elections is based on computer analysis of existing trends in society, in particular, fluctuations in ratings of candidates, depending on various circumstances.

Futurists are taken, using a computer, predrech and what we will eat in the future and how to dress. Back in the early 80-ies, electronic device, "UNI-WAC (United States) was the first forecast of fashion.

The fact that fashion, as it appears to be changing at regular intervals. It is noticed that instead of mini-skirts and clothes "environmental" flower always comes maximal toxic colors and the style lasts for two years. If the phenomenon is repeated every 5 years, the machine is safe to say that in the next five years we will change the short skirts to long.

Anyone today can become an astrologer. It only needs to install on your computer special astrology software. Simply enter the digits in the machine memory dates of birth of the customer to get his star map or even a detailed horoscope.

There are also programs on palmistry, working with scanned prints of palms, a variety of "divination" programs such as "Book of Changes".

Maybe soon we will be able to teach computer and clairvoyance. Some parapsychologists argue that between events there is a causal relationship. People with paranormal abilities, not actually "see" the future, and instantly "calculate" it out of this situation, just like any other mathematical genius in a few seconds to produce in the mind of sophisticated calculations and report the finished result.

If you have a program for math, why not create a program that calculates what lies ahead? Suffice it to lay all the memory becoming available to date facts and let the machine "see" them ...

Alas, the reality is not so rosy. For example, computer horoscopes are mostly offer a choice of tens of other options. If you're observant, you may notice that the texts of the daily weather forecast in a while repeated.

Deleted and "human" factor. The forecast of "manual", the predictor can adjust the data in accordance with their professional knowledge. The computer does not.

In drawing up the computer predictions for the basis of a certain average standard. The computer does not take into account many details that make the forecast more accurate. For example, you and Vasya Pupkin born with a difference of one second, but the machine gives you the same forecast birth date.

But it is clear that your fate may coincide only in general terms, but not in detail. And sometimes, of a second completely changes our lives .../ P>

See also: our destiny is determined Watches

These are not "computer" astrologers and palmists take for their work decent money. Why? After all, if you could make an accurate prediction only with a computer, their work would simply depreciated.

The fact that they are precisely the individual predictions, considering the client's personal situation, and it requires enormous time and effort. But you'll know exactly, change it if this year's work and enter into a marriage, then the computer only hint at the "change in career and personal life."

And yet, something which benefits computed prediction certainly brings. Firstly, it is quite effective in terms of sociology, as in this case is important as just "average" option: crowd behavior is more predictable than the individual. Secondly, you at least will be ready to or other developments, a lack of accurate information will give you the freedom to maneuver.

Маргарита Троицына

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